This morning, I read the PDF report by the South Sudan Bureau of Statistics (South Sudan Population Estimation Survey Modelled 2021: Summary Report Estimates). Naturally, the staggering population rises caught my eye. However, the estimated report revealed significant discrepancies between the 2008 Census data and the latest population figures. Nevertheless, reading it was so intriguing that I decided to pay close attention and realised these discrepancies.
For example, there is a rapid increase in some areas. At the same time, the report also discusses displacement in the regions where population expansion is recorded, such as Unity State. I examine these disparities, focusing on the differences in population across various states and administrative areas, and seek to understand the possible reasons behind these inconsistencies.
Notable Differences:
Upon comparing the 2008 Census data with the 2021 population estimates, I observed considerable shifts in population numbers across South Sudan. Examples of these differences include:
Northern Bhar el Gazal State: Population increased by +1,203,444 (from 720,898 in 2008 to 1,924,342 in 2021).
Warrap State: Population increased by +1,666,545 (from 972,928 in 2008 to 2,639,473 in 2021).
Jonglei State: Population decreased by -327,395 (from 1,358,602 in 2008 to 791,105 in 2021, adjusted for the separation of the Greater Pibor Administrative Area).
Upper Nile: Population decreased by -174,206 (from 964,353 in 2008 to 790,147 in 2021).
In addition, the 2021 estimates reported separate population figures for three administrative areas that were part of larger states in 2008:
Greater Pibor Administrative Area: Population of 240,102 in 2021.
Ruweng Administrative Area: Population of 234,416 in 2021.
Abyei Administrative Area: Population of 133,955 in 2021.
Analysis:
The dramatic population changes observed across various states and administrative areas raise questions about the reliability of these estimates and the methodology used to calculate them. In addition, a clear explanation for these discrepancies and a lack of formal data collection processes make it challenging to understand the rationale behind these changes.
For instance, the Unity State and Ruweng Administrative Area experienced a combined population increase of 541,395 between 2008 and 2021. On the other hand, Jonglei State saw a reduction of 327,395 when accounting for the separation of the Greater Pibor Administrative Area.
Given the inconsistencies in population data between the 2008 Census and the latest estimates, it is crucial to investigate the source and methodology of these population estimates and consider factors that may have influenced these changes. In addition, a thorough understanding of the data collection process will help to ensure the accuracy and reliability of future population statistics in South Sudan.
The notable population increase observed in the counties of Warrap State between 2008 and 2021 exemplifies the unexplained discrepancies that cast doubt on the accuracy and reliability of the data. The following comparisons highlight the population growth in each county within Warrap State:
Gogrial West: Population increased by 338,458 (from 243,921 in 2008 to 582,379 in 2021).
Gogrial East: The Population increased by 170,714 (from 103,283 in 2008 to 273,997 in 2021).
Tonj North: Population increased by 486,132 (from 165,222 in 2008 to 651,354 in 2021).
Tonj East: Population increased by 289,541 (from 116,122 in 2008 to 405,663 in 2021).
Tonj South: Population increased by 206,203 (from 86,592 in 2008 to 292,795 in 2021).
Twic: Population increased by 228,890 (from 204,905 in 2008 to 433,795 in 2021).
Abyei: The Population increased by 81,075 (from 52,883 in 2008 to 133,958 in 2021).
Understanding these significant changes is only possible with an accurate census or a clear explanation from the South Sudan Bureau of Statistics. However, the significant population growth across all counties in Warrap State raises questions about the data's reliability and the methodology used to derive these estimates.
Suppose the Bureau's argument attributes this increase to the displacement of people from Unity State to Warrap, primarily in Twic for the Bul Nuer. In that case, it raises further questions because Unity is supposed to experience a decrease in population, but the opposite occurred.
I have attached my images from the comparison I made, which is interesting. I wish Chol Amot or the staff at the Bureau were ready to discuss these. NB: This is a personal analysis.
#Ajakdengchiengkou
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