SPLA-IO Accused of Detaining Civilian Boats, Demanding $4,000 Along Sobat River
Juba, October 7, 2025
A regional ceasefire monitor says that both the government of South Sudan and opposition forces are recruiting fighters and abducting children, sparking fresh fears that the country may slip back into full-scale civil war.
Key Developments
The Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) overseen by IGAD says South Sudan’s military in June initiated a recruitment drive for 4,000 new forces, and opened a new training center in August.
Reports also indicate that all sides in the conflict have abducted or mobilized children, and there have been instances of sexual violence by combatants.
Civilians have borne the brunt: from January to September 2025, civilian casualties rose by 59% compared with the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, about 321,000 people have been displaced by ongoing conflict.
The armed conflict between President Salva Kiir’s forces and the opposition loyal to Riek Machar has escalated since late 2024.
Machar, currently under house arrest, faces trial on terrorism and crimes against humanity charges. The government claims he incited violence; he denies involvement and calls for an independent investigation.
RJMEC warns that without urgent action, the fragile 2018 peace agreement may collapse.
Why This Matters
The recruitment and abduction of child soldiers violate international humanitarian law and threaten the social fabric of communities.
If the 2018 peace deal unravels, South Sudan risks sliding back into a devastating civil war, reversing years of international efforts and reconstruction.
The instability may have regional spillovers affecting refugee flows, cross-border militancy, and investment in East Africa.
What to Watch
The outcome of Machar’s trial: whether it will be seen as politically motivated or legitimate.
Whether the transitional government can deliver on stalled provisions: the integration of armed groups, security sector reforms, and credible elections.
International and regional responses, particularly from IGAD, the UN, and donor countries, and whether sanctions or mediation will be applied.
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