- South Sudan peace process, Riek Machar trial, SPLM-IO, 2018 peace agreement, December 2026 elections, political stability
- South Sudan, peace agreement 2018, Riek Machar trial, SPLM-IO, unity government, democratic transition, 2026 elections, civil society, observer skepticism.
Juba, South Sudan - September 30, 2025
South Sudan’s fragile peace process is under renewed scrutiny as government leaders and international observers disagree sharply on the country’s path forward toward a full peace deal and the December 2026 elections.
At the heart of the dispute is the ongoing trial of opposition leader Dr. Riek Machar and his associates — an issue many say threatens the core of the 2018 peace agreement.
Key Issues
1. Trial of Riek Machar and SPLM-IO Colleagues
Dr. Riek Machar, suspended First Vice President, along with seven co-accused from his SPLM-IO party, face charges including treason and murder.
These relate to a deadly attack in March on a government military base in Nasir, where dozens of soldiers and a general were killed.
Critics argue that these trials endanger political inclusivity and breach the power-sharing spirit of the 2018 peace agreement.
2. Government Reaffirmation vs. Observers’ Skepticism
Despite calls for concern, the transitional government has attempted to assure both domestic and international stakeholders of its commitment to the peace accord.
On Monday, Cabinet Affairs Minister Martin Elia Lomuro addressed diplomats during China’s National Day celebrations in Juba, stressing the government’s dedication to holding elections in December 2026 and maintaining peace agreement implementation.
He asserted that legal actions against SPLM-IO leaders do not directly impede democratic transition.
However, analysts and civil society activists are deeply skeptical. They argue that prosecuting Machar, a principal signatory to the 2018 peace deal, undercuts the entire agreement’s legitimacy.
3. Unity, Trust, and Legitimacy at Stake
Observers warn that the visible rift between President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar is contributing to a growing trust deficit.
This gap is being felt not just among political elites, but also among ordinary citizens, investors, and international donors.
According to policy analyst James Boboya, the trial “will affect peace” and shaking the foundations of unity and inclusion could deter investment and stall recovery.
Civil society activist Ter Manyang Gatwech emphasises that full participation of all peace deal signatories is essential. Without this inclusion, the peace process risks losing legitimacy.
Excluding key parties undermines the very mechanism designed to steer South Sudan out of decades of conflict.
4. Elections Still Scheduled for December 2026
According to government statements, despite delays and ongoing political tensions, national elections remain planned for December 2026.
This timeline has been pushed back multiple times since the peace deal was signed in 2018.
Why This Matters
Peace Agreement Integrity: The 2018 peace agreement relies heavily on unity and inclusion.
When a key signatory is facing serious charges, it raises questions about whether all parties are operating in good faith.
Political Stability & Investor Confidence: Stability is critical for economic growth and humanitarian relief in South Sudan. Analysts say continued legal and political conflict could worsen the economic crisis and reduce both local and international investment.
Humanitarian Concerns: The country's economic hardships, liquidity crunch, and public trust deficit are already putting pressure on ordinary citizens. If political uncertainty deepens, the humanitarian crisis could worsen.
Perspectives From All Sides
Stakeholder Viewpoint
Government / Unity Faction Maintains that legal processes are independent of the peace agreement, and the trial of Machar does not hinder the democratic transition.
Expresses firm commitment to elections in December 2026.
Opposition / SPLM-IO / Machar camp Feels the trial undermines inclusion and that the legal processes are being used politically to weaken the opposition.
(Indirectly from analysts.)
Observers / Civil Society Concerned that sidelining a signatory of the peace deal erodes trust; warns that peace may unravel without full implementation.
Policy Analysts / Investors Fear that trust deficits and political instability will compound economic problems and discourage foreign investment and aid.
What Comes Next: Roadmap & Risks
To preserve the peace process and maintain momentum toward the 2026 elections, several steps are critical:
Ensure Impartial Legal Proceedings: Courts must conduct trials transparently and fairly, with guarantees that political motives are not driving prosecutions.
Restore Inclusivity: All signatories to the peace agreement must be involved in governance and peace implementation steps. Exclusion of major factions weakens legitimacy.
Confidence-Building Measures: Leaders need to rebuild trust through joint statements, reconciliation efforts, and visible collaboration.
Socio-Economic Stabilisation: Improving basic services, addressing inflation, currency liquidity, and humanitarian needs could reduce the public’s sense of desperation and instability.
International Support & Oversight: Continued engagement from international partners, observers, and donors to ensure accountability and support for credible elections.
Failure to address these risks could trigger a relapse into instability, undermine progress made since the 2018 peace deal, and result in delays or a flawed electoral process.
The Stakes
South Sudan stands at a pivotal juncture. On one hand, the country has made strides since the 2018 peace deal establishing a unity government, advancing peace structures, and preparing for national elections.
On the other hand, political tensions, legal confrontations, and doubts over inclusivity threaten to unravel years of fragile progress.
The success of the peace agreement and forthcoming elections is not only essential for political legitimacy, but also for the livelihoods of millions of South Sudanese. The world is watching.
Conclusion
While the government insists its path toward December 2026 elections remains firm, observers and civil society warn that ongoing trials of opposition figures could derail the foundational tenets of South Sudan’s peace process.
Full inclusion of all signatories, impartial adjudication, and concerted efforts to rebuild public trust are indispensable if the country is to avoid repeating cycles of conflict and remain on track for a stable and democratic future.
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