International bodies are sounding the alarm as South Sudan's fragile peace process teeters on the edge of collapse. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) have warned of deepening divisions, rising insecurity, and stalled implementation of the 2018 peace deal.
A Dangerous Breakdown in Peace
The 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) brought hope to a nation shattered by civil war. But that hope is now dimming.
In a briefing to the UN Security Council, Guang Cong, the Deputy Head of UNMISS, revealed that over 130,000 people have been displaced in recent months due to a surge in armed violence particularly in Upper Nile and Greater Pibor.
The increase in military activity and the escalation of localized conflicts have disrupted humanitarian access and eroded confidence between the signatories of the peace agreement.
“These are not just isolated incidents. We are seeing a pattern of unilateral action and cease-fire violations that go against the spirit of the peace deal,” said Cong.
Political Power Struggle at the Heart of the Crisis
International and Regional observers say tensions within the unity government particularly between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar have reached a boiling point.
The March 26 detention of Machar in Juba, which RJMEC says was unconstitutional and a violation of the peace deal, has caused widespread concern among opposition supporters and the international community.
The incident, which sparked condemnation from IGAD and several regional leaders, is seen as a symptom of deeper mistrust and the growing personalization of power within Juba’s political elite.
The RJMEC’s interim chair, Maj. Gen. George Owinow, stated:
“The collapse in trust between key leaders is now the biggest threat to the peace deal. Without genuine political will, we risk returning to full-scale conflict.”
Elections in 2026: A Distant Dream?
The revitalized peace agreement set a path for democratic elections by December 2024, later postponed to December 2026. But with the continued delays in implementing key provisions especially in constitution making, security reforms, and the unification of forces many observers now question whether free and fair elections can realistically happen on time.
RJMEC has reported that:
1. The permanent constitution has not been finalized.
2. The necessary legislation for elections is still pending in parliament.
3. The process of unifying the national army is far from complete.
UNMISS and RJMEC have both emphasized that without urgent action, South Sudan could miss yet another milestone, risking a complete breakdown in the transition process.
What the International Community is Calling For
In response to these alarming developments, UNMISS and RJMEC are calling on:
1. All signatory parties to recommit to the peace process.
2. The release of political detainees, including Riek Machar.
3. A renewed cease-fire declaration and full compliance with transitional security arrangements.
Regional bodies like IGAD, the African Union, and development partners to increase pressure and provide diplomatic support.
What This Means for South Sudanese Citizens
For ordinary South Sudanese, especially those in displacement camps or conflict-prone areas, the stalling of the peace deal means more uncertainty, poverty, and fear. It also threatens efforts toward long-term reconciliation and national healing.
Many citizens now worry that their voices will once again be sidelined, and that elections already long delayed will be held in a climate of repression and exclusion.
Analysis: What’s Next?
As the political temperature continues to rise, three critical questions emerge:
1. Will IGAD step in with stronger mediation or sanctions?
2. Can internal pressure from civil society, churches, and youth groups revive the peace process?
3. Is it time to rethink the transitional roadmap altogether?
South Sudan cannot afford another return to war. Yet without bold action both from within and beyond the window for lasting peace is rapidly closing.
For continued updates on South Sudan’s peace process, governance, and elections, follow Juba Wire.
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