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| Raila Odinga and President Kiir. |
Kenya’s former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s attempt to meet with South Sudan’s First Vice President Riek Machar in Juba has failed after President Salva Kiir declined the request. Machar remains under house arrest amid an ongoing investigation into the killing of a top general, a move that has further inflamed tensions in the country.
Odinga, who was on a mediation mission to de-escalate rising political tensions in South Sudan, met with President Kiir on Friday. However, sources close to the discussions confirmed that Kiir refused to allow Odinga access to Machar, who has been confined to his residence under heavy security.
Machar Under Investigation
The First Vice President’s house arrest follows deadly clashes in Nasir, Upper Nile State, which resulted in the killing of a high ranking military officer and at least ten others. The government alleges that forces loyal to Machar were involved in the violence, prompting an official probe into his role in the incident.
National Information Minister Michael Makuei confirmed that Machar is under investigation but denied that he is formally detained. “The Vice President is under restriction for security reasons. The government is conducting investigations to determine those responsible for the Nasir incident,” Makuei stated.
Opposition Cries Foul, Says Peace Deal Collapsing
Machar’s party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), has condemned the restrictions placed on their leader, calling it a blatant violation of the 2018 peace agreement. SPLM-IO officials argue that Machar’s house arrest signals a breakdown of the fragile peace deal and warn that South Sudan risks sliding back into full-scale conflict.
“We see this as a direct attack on the peace agreement. Blocking a peace envoy like Raila Odinga from seeing the First Vice President is a clear indication that the government does not want reconciliation,” said SPLM-IO spokesperson Puok Both Baluang.
Regional and International Concerns
Odinga’s failed mediation attempt has sparked regional and international concern. The United States has urged President Kiir to release Machar and respect the terms of the peace agreement. Meanwhile, the African Union has called for an urgent meeting to discuss the escalating political crisis.
Observers fear that tensions between Kiir and Machar, longstanding rivals, could reignite conflict just months before South Sudan’s scheduled elections. With opposition leaders declaring that the peace deal is collapsing, fears of renewed violence are growing.
What’s Next?
With the opposition threatening to withdraw from the unity government and growing international pressure on Kiir, South Sudan’s fragile peace stands at a crossroads. Whether mediation efforts will resume remains uncertain, but analysts warn that without urgent diplomatic intervention, the country could be heading toward another devastating war.
As the situation unfolds, all eyes remain on Juba, where political maneuvering could determine South Sudan’s fate in the coming months.
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